An amazing “coincidence.” What are the odds?

What are the odds that the police would have an eye on a house because they think a burglar lives there?  That, while they’re keeping an eye on the house, some completely random person comes up and asks them to go into the house for a “well being” check?  That fire and rescue, along with the police, enter the house to find two people they say need medical assistance, but who don’t need it so bad they’re willing (or required) to go to the hospital?  That a subsequent search of the home (the cops are already in, so why not, right?) turned up not only the stolen items but the alleged burglar?  That all this happened on the same day in the same town at the same house?

What are the odds?

Pretty good if you take the Oswego Police department’s version of things.  From today’s Beacon News:

Well-being check leads to burglary arrest in Oswego

BY ERIKA WURST ewurst@stmedianetwork.com November 21, 2013 5:14PM

Updated: November 21, 2013 6:05PM

 An Oswego man is facing burglary charges this week after police allegedly found stolen items in his home during a well-being check on Sunday.
Police entered the home of Zachary Harmon, 21, 800 block of Columbus Drive, to conduct a well-being check, and during a search found items linked to a recent series of burglaries.
Oswego police took two reports from residents who reported having their vehicles broken into between 8:30 p.m. Saturday and 11 a.m. Sunday on Manhattan Circle.
A laptop computer, a phone, a radar detector and a GPS unit were allegedly taken during the burglaries, police said.
Police received a tip from one of the victims that the items might be located at a home in the 800 block of Columbus Drive. As police were watching the home, a woman showed up, concerned about the well being of someone inside, they said…

How lucky those officers must have been?  Clearly a case of being in the right place at the right time!  If that completely random woman hadn’t happened upon them (completely randomly, I’m sure) and possibly given them an exception to the 4th Amendment’s requirement to get a warrant before going into the home that was, coincidentally, I’m sure, the subject of their surveillance, they may never have been able to go in.  All pure luck, I’m sure!

Or, there’s more going on in this one than the Beacon News was lead to believe.  My money is on option #2.

It know it’s not that much of a concern to you, though.  The police had a hunch, they got their man.  You don’t care about his rights as long as he’s guilty.

I care about his rights. I care about your rights, too.  Mostly because his rights and your rights are my rights.  That’s really what I’m worried about.

So, I read this report and I’m concerned.  Let’s just say I don’t think it was all a coincidence.

Sex Offenders Impress McHenry County Sheriff.

Ok, maybe I made that up.  It seems like a reasonable inference, though.  Why else would the McHenry County Sherrif’s Department be issuing press releases and posting them to the web page.

Earlier today, Nygren’s office issued the following:

PRESS RELEASE- SEX OFFENDER COMPLIANCE CHECK

11/21/2013 12:00:00 AM

The McHenry County Sheriff’s Office announced today the completion of a recent sex offender compliance operation conducted by the Sheriff’s Office and the United States Marshal Service. The week long operation was conducted to ensure that all registered sex offenders were compliant with the statutory requirements. A total of 80 compliance checks were conducted during this operation.

Illinois State law only requires annual checks; however, Sheriff’s Office investigators conduct bi-annual verifications to make sure that registered sex offenders are providing accurate home addresses, as well as employer and vehicle information. It is a violation of the Illinois Registered Sex Offender Law to not report any change in address or employment.

The sex offender compliance operation started November 19, 2013 and continued through November 21, 2013. The McHenry County Sheriff’s Office is committed to ensuring that all registered sex offenders remain in compliance with state law.

“If a member of the public becomes aware of a violation, they are encouraged to call our office at 815-338-2144 or call Crimestoppers at 1-800-762-STOP”, stated Undersheriff Andrew Zinke.  “All of the registered sex offenders were found to be in compliance”.

I thought that sex offenders are always out lurking in the shadows while plotting, scheming and trying to re-offend?  That’s what I’ve been lead to believe, anyway- that people on this list are just about the most serious danger as they can’t control themselves and they’re over-run by impulse.

According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, that’s not quite true.  Their study dealt with the worst of the offenders (the ones who had gone to prison).  It also applied a very lenient definition of “recidivism”.  According to them, recidivism is “measured by criminal acts that resulted in the rearrest, reconviction, or return to prison with or without a new sentence during a three-year period following the prisoner’s release.” (emphasis added).  This, of course means that even innocent people (those merely charged who subsequently were found not guilty or had cases dismissed) were counted as folks who had re-offended!

By that standard, over the 3 years following release from prison there was a recidivism rate of 2.5%

So, McHenry County appears to be home to 80 sex offenders. If the BJS statistics are true you can assume a 2.5% recidivism rate over a 3 year span, right?

Wrong.  First, you’d have to assume that all 80 were among the “worst of the worst” and had gone to prison.  If that were true, you could assume 2.5% would be charged with a new sex offense every 3 years. That math works out to 2 people. 2. Two. T-w-o.  Less than one per year.  And since it didn’t even matter in that study if they were actually guilty, the number of sex offenders actually re-committing sex crimes is lower than that assumed figure.

Even with those assumptions the math comes out to… a lower risk to re-offend than just about any crime anywhere, including speeding, DUI, underage possession of alcohol, and dealing drugs.

I’m not saying that any sex offense is a good thing.  I’m just saying that the McHenry County Sheriff’s Office found that all of the McHenry County Sex Offenders were doing exactly as ordered.  That doesn’t surprise me.  It shouldn’t surprise you, either.

Two guys from West Chicago are charged with breaking stuff in Batavia… and it highlights a fairly silly law.

This article in the Kane County Chronicle caught my eye today:

“West Chicago men charged with damaging city property in Batavia.”

I was interested for a couple of reasons.  First, “breaking stuff” (or “criminal damage to property” as the law calls it) is a fairly mundane, common crime.  If “breaking things” happens fairly often and the police tipped off the Chronicle that stuff was broken, there’s got to be more to the story, right?

I was also intrigued because Batavia has pumped a lot of money into the river lane area downtown (seen above… under construction).  From an outsider’s standpoint, it’s turned out pretty well.  I know there’s a bit of controversy over the money the city spent on the arch.  It’s not my money, though, so I’m fine with it.

In perusing Nicole Weskerna’s article, the it looks like the purported offense did occur in the newly-revamped section of River lane;

The incident occurred shortly after midnight on Friday, Oct. 18, in the 0-99 block of North River Street in Batavia. Police responded to a report of damage to the front door of a private business at 17 N. River St. Police found that a large cement garbage can, which was later determined to be property of the city of Batavia, had been smashed through the front door, states the release.
The garbage can had been rolled down the pedestrian stairs of the city parking deck located at State Street and North River Street prior to being smashed into the window. The damage to the city’s property included the garbage can,  as well as the stairwell on the parking deck.

Sadly, I’m not surprised.  The upside of the new development is that it’s drawing more people to that section of town. The downside, of course, is that more people means more opportunity to break stuff.

So, some guys throw a garbage can through a door, and you’re asking why I’m annoyed?  I’m annoyed because of the charges.  The two men each:

…face one count of criminal damage to government property, a Class 3 felony, and one count of criminal damage to property, a Class 4 felony, according to a news release from the police department.

To the uninitiated, a Class 3 felony is more severe and carries a higher maximum (and minimum) prison sentence than a Class 4.  Here, the horrendous damage surely done to the city’s concrete garbage can is a Class 3 felony.  The damage to the private citizen’s door is a Class 4.

Why is that?

Because the garbage can is owned by the government.  If somebody took your garbage can and threw it through your door, they would be charged with two class 4 felonies.  If they took the government’s garbage can and threw it through the government’s door, it would be two class 3 felonies- even if the damage was identical.

Why is the law written like that? I have no idea. It makes no sense.  Apparently their stuff is more important than your stuff.

I’m curious about the human remains found in that house near McHenry. Real curious.

Last week word got out that the police had found human remains in a house in McHenry.  The McHenry County Sheriff’s Police wouldn’t say much. They especially wouldn’t say if “foul play” might have been involved.

I don’t usually jump the gun on speculating on such things- it’s not worth it. After reading the latest update in the Northwest Herald, though, I’m curious as to the full story.  According to their story titled, “Skeletal remains found near McHenry; homeowner charged,” Lawrence Synett writes that:

Deputies were called to the residence near McHenry in an unincorporated area of the county around 2 p.m. Wednesday after the caretaker of the home found skeletal remains inside a bedroom of the home, Undersheriff Andrew Zinke said.
The woman, who has not yet been identified, appeared to have been dead for some time. A criminal complaint filed in McHenry County Court said Ross put the body in a plastic bag and sealed the room where her remains were found.

He then goes on to quote Undersheriff Andy Zinke:

“Our focus is on identifying the victim and notifying the family,” Zinke said. “This is an ongoing homicide investigation with a lot of unanswered questions. We are hopeful to bring closure to someone’s family relatively soon.”

That right there is where I get curious.  The homeowner has been charged with “concealing a homicidal death.”  In order to be guilty of that charge, a person must “knowingly [conceal] the death of any other person with knowledge that such other person has died by homicidal means.” (Emphasis added)  Of course, a “homicidal” death is one that results because of “act or acts, lawful or unlawful, of a person that cause the death of another person.”

So, this man has been charged with concealing the death of a person whom he knows died at the hands of another person.

Do you suspect foul play now?  I’m not sure if I do or don’t- that doesn’t really matter. What I wonder about is if the remains of this person were so decayed that the police couldn’t immediately determine a cause of death.  And if they couldn’t, how could you charge a man with concealing a homicidal death (as opposed to “concealment of death”- a less serious charge)?

The Elgin Police Department is a little out of touch, maybe.

You know how whenever the government does something that it’s already paid to do it tells us how it did something so that we all know that it’s doing something which we expected all along, anyway?  That’s a big part of why police press releases exist.  I don’t necessarily blame the men in blue for this, though.  It’s a political system and people are always trying to cut budgets here and spend money elsewhere.  So, maybe they need to over-state what they do.

I don’t know.

I do know that a lot of the police press releases are amusing.  Like this one from the Elgin Police Department.  It seems that an officer from the Elgin PD arrested a man with a gun and, well, they wanted us all to know.  According to their press release:

On November 1, 2013 the Mulberry Court Resident Police Officer was on patrol in his neighborhood when he observed suspicious activity from subjects in a vehicle and conducted a traffic stop in the area of Allison Drive and Jane Drive. While conducting the investigation two subjects in the vehicle fled on foot. One subject, identified as 19 year old, Devonne L. Montgomery, of Crestwood, was apprehended in the 200 block of Robert Drive after a short foot pursuit, and taken into custody on two outstanding criminal warrants.

While officers continued to investigate the incident, a citizen advised officers that they observed Montgomery throw an item in the bushes where he was apprehended. Officers searched the area and recovered a loaded handgun.

Now, I’m going to go ahead and pretend my little criminal defense eyes didn’t read that first sentence.  I mean, while “suspicious activity” can be a reason for an officer to perform a traffic stop on a car, without more detail it isn’t necessarily the case that it does.  And, if it actually didn’t here, that means it’s possible the entire case might be thrown out… in which case the Elgin PD would really just be announcing a bollixed case.

Without more details, we’ll just assume the stop was legitimate for today’s purposes.  It won’t be easy for me to do, but I’ll do it.

Aside from that, the part that I was surprised they included was the following (with my emphasis added):

While officers continued to investigate the incident, a citizen advised officers that they observed Montgomery throw an item in the bushes where he was apprehended. Officers searched the area and recovered a loaded handgun.

 ***

It should be noted that officers were assisted greatly by residents in the neighborhood providing witness information.  It is cooperation such as this that continues to improve the Elgin community.   

Ever watch The First 48 and wonder why nobody in the community will ever talk to the detectives?  I mean, nobody on that show ever talks- except for the defendant who, 75% of the time, seems to think that confessing is the clear path to a “not guilty” (hint: it’s not).  Nobody talks because they believe that if they do, the defendant or his buddies will find out.  If that happens, the person who talked may just be retaliated against (related sidenote: “retaliated against” is a nice way for saying “murdered” or “severely injured”).

Before you go off the deep end and accuse me of somehow endorsing this mentality- read that again.  The reality is that the quickest way for crime-riddled communities to clean themselves up is to ensure that crimes are quickly solved.  Sadly, though, the other side of that reality is that many crime-riddled communities are that way because people who talk to the police aren’t exactly embraced by the community- like it or not, that’s how it is.

So, you know who doesn’t want anybody to know who they are and that they just talked to police?  The people who just told the police that one of their neighbors threw a gun in the bushes. Did the Elgin Police Department identify those people by name? Of course not.  That doesn’t mean they should have mentioned it at all, though. Just because we don’t know who the person was (and we shouldn’t), doesn’t mean the guy who threw the gun (or his buddies on the outside) can’t figure it out.  How many people will keep talking to the police if they know that a press release posted to the public will brag about how people are giving information?

I get that the Elgin PD is trying to let us know that Elgin is looking out for itself and possibly trying to turn around an undeserved reputation among people living in other cities.  Press releases like this might ultimately be counter-productive, though.